Category: Climate insurance · Reviewed by Mark Fox, Broker · Renewals · Last reviewed 2026-06-10
Climate Value at Risk (Climate VaR) is a forward-looking risk metric that estimates the potential loss in value of a portfolio of assets arising from physical and transition climate risks under a specified scenario and time horizon. It is used by UK insurers, banks and asset owners to translate qualitative climate exposure into a quantitative balance-sheet number.
Category: Climate insurance Also known as: Climate Value at Risk; CVaR (climate); Climate-adjusted VaR Established / Date: Commercial methodologies emerged from c.2016; refined alongside TCFD recommendations (June 2017) and NGFS scenarios (June 2020) Related concepts: Climate stress test insurance, NGFS, TCFD
Climate VaR adapts the traditional Value-at-Risk concept used in market and credit risk to a climate framing. Whereas market VaR estimates the loss not exceeded over a defined horizon (typically days or months) at a given confidence level under historical or simulated price distributions, Climate VaR projects net present value loss over a 15-30 year horizon under a specified climate scenario (typically NGFS Net Zero 2050, Below 2°C, Delayed Transition, Nationally Determined Contributions or Current Policies).
Climate VaR typically decomposes loss into: (a) physical risk — damage and productivity loss from acute hazards and chronic shifts; (b) transition policy risk — carbon pricing and regulatory cost; (c) technology opportunity — value gained or lost from green innovations. Some methodologies (e.g. MSCI Climate VaR, formerly Carbon Delta) also separate “green” and “brown” opportunity components.
Climate VaR is not standardised in the same way as Solvency II Solvency Capital Requirement (SCR). Methodologies differ across vendors and in-house models; results depend heavily on scenario choice, discount rate and sectoral mapping.
Climate VaR is not mandated by any UK statute or rule, but it features prominently in supervisory expectations. The PRA’s SS 3/19 requires forward-looking scenario analysis with quantitative outputs, and the Bank of England CBES used scenario-level loss projections functionally equivalent to Climate VaR.[1]
TCFD’s 2021 guidance on metrics, targets and transition plans expressly references climate-related VaR among recommended quantitative metrics.[2] IFRS S2 (June 2023, effective 1 January 2024) requires disclosure of “the current and anticipated effects of climate-related risks and opportunities on the entity’s financial position, financial performance and cash flows” — encouraging firms to use Climate VaR or analogous metrics where material.[3]
For UK occupational pension schemes regulated under SI 2021/839 (in force 1 October 2021 for the largest schemes), trustees must report climate metrics including a “selected additional climate change metric” — many schemes use Climate VaR for this purpose.
UK insurers use Climate VaR in three ways. First, on investment portfolios: bond, equity and infrastructure holdings are stress-tested under NGFS scenarios to derive a portfolio-level loss number that feeds into the SCR and ORSA. Second, on underwriting portfolios: catastrophe-modelled losses under climate-adjusted hazards are compared with current premium and reserve adequacy. Third, on overall solvency: the combined Climate VaR informs internal capital allocation and dividend planning.
Lloyd’s managing agents have incorporated Climate VaR-style outputs into their capital coverage ratio reviews and ESG reporting. Asset managers serving UK insurer clients (LGIM, Schroders, Aviva Investors, M&G) publish portfolio-level Climate VaR figures, drawing on MSCI, S&P Trucost or in-house methodologies. The PRA’s October 2021 Climate Change Adaptation Report identified consistent methodology and disclosure as continuing priorities.
For UK insurance buyers, Climate VaR is most relevant where their own listed parents are publishing climate-related metrics under TCFD, s.414CB or IFRS S2. Where this is the case, a board can use Climate VaR to communicate residual exposure to D&O insurers and to inform decisions on captive participation, retentions and parametric layers.
Brokers should expect insurer counterparties to share Climate VaR-style metrics on their own balance sheet, particularly when negotiating long-tail covers (D&O, employers’ liability, environmental impairment liability) where the underwriting horizon extends across multiple decades.
A FTSE 100 industrials group reports a Climate VaR of -3.8% on its enterprise value under the NGFS Delayed Transition scenario at a 2050 horizon, broken down as -2.6% from transition policy costs, -1.7% from physical risk, and +0.5% from green technology opportunity. The disclosure under s.414CB Companies Act 2006 and IFRS S2 supports a successful D&O renewal at flat pricing, and the captive insurer uses the metric to size a parametric transition cost layer.
This entry is part of the Apex Insurance Wiki. Last reviewed by Matt Bartlett on 2026-06-10. Next review: 2026-12-10.
Apex Insurance Brokers Limited. Authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority, FRN 724952. Registered in England and Wales, Companies House 07014570. This entry provides general information about UK insurance concepts and is not regulated advice. Consult your insurance broker on your specific position.
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