Insurance underwriting cycle

Category: Underwriting practice · Reviewed by Jake Leat, Associate Director · Last reviewed

Insurance underwriting cycle

The insurance underwriting cycle (or simply “the cycle”) is the recurring pattern of alternating hard and soft market conditions in commercial property and casualty insurance. It is one of the most enduring empirical features of the (re)insurance industry.

Phases

• Soft market — capacity is abundant, competition compresses rates, terms broaden, retentions reduce, profitability declines.
• Hardening market — losses accumulate or capital is impaired; capacity withdraws and rates rise.
• Hard market — capacity is scarce, rates rise rapidly, terms narrow, retentions increase, profitability recovers.
• Softening market — capital returns chasing the hardened margins; rates flatten and decline.

A full cycle has historically lasted 6–10 years, though individual lines and territories experience their own micro-cycles.

Drivers

• Loss shocks — Hurricane Andrew (1992), 9/11 (2001), 2017 storms, Covid BI claims, 2022 inflation.
• Investment returns — high yields support soft pricing; lower yields require harder pricing for the same RoE.
• Capital availability — entry of ILS, sidecars and reinsurer capital.
• Regulatory changes — Solvency II, reinsurance recognition rules, ratings agency actions.
• Cognitive biases — recency bias in pricing, herd behaviour.

Why brokers care

The cycle dictates negotiating leverage, the availability of capacity, the speed of placement and the durability of long-term agreements. Strategic brokers track sub-cycle dynamics by class, layer and territory, and structure programmes (multi-year, profit-share, layered) to smooth the cycle for clients.

References

• Cummins, J.D. and Outreville, J.F. (1987). An International Analysis of Underwriting Cycles in Property-Liability Insurance. Journal of Risk and Insurance 54.
• Swiss Re sigma reports.
• IFoA general insurance cycle papers.

Cross-references

• Underwriting profit
• Combined ratio underwriting

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